Registration and breakfast
Chair’s opening remarks
Event Moderator
MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT – PANEL DISCUSSION
Reviewing macroeconomic environment changes and impacts to credit
- Managing conflicting macroeconomic indicators
- Managing anticipation of increased defaults
- Understanding the impact from the growth of private credit providers
- Effectiveness of historical indicators in predicting a recession
- Managing high inflation and interest rates
- Interest rate environment and corporate credit defaults
- Commercial real estate loans in the post COVID world
- Changes in debt levels to consumer with higher rates
BASEL END GAME
Reviewing Basel proposal and its impact to credit risk
- Overview of the Basel 3 proposal and the Basel End Game
- Delving into key changes for credit risk under the Basel guidance
- Assessing the potential impacts to the market and pricing
- Expectations on impacts to models and valuations
- Reviewing approaches across jurisdictions
Morning refreshment break and networking
INTEREST RATE RISK
Mitigating the impact of interest rate risk on commercial and consumer debt
- Assessing economic trends and factors impacting interest rate changes
- Reviewing risks of refinancing and leverage in a changing rate environment
- Maintaining up-to-date models and assumptions
- Impact of elevated rates on unsecured consumer lending
- Balancing inflation price rises and increased interest rates
- Impact of changing rates on the prepayment model
INTEREST RATE RISK
Effectively navigating uncertainty in macro and funding markets – how prepared are FIs for the road ahead?
- Assessing US interest rate and funding market outlook
- US macro-outlook: base case and potential risks
- US interest rate outlook: base case and pitfalls
- Fed balance sheet outlook: base case and risks
- USD funding market outlook: base case and risks
DELINQUENCY RATES
Assessing increased delinquency rates after a period of low rates
- Impact of pandemic measures on delinquency rates
- Changes as restrictions and payment deferrals expire
- Monitoring rates across portfolios
- Managing upside trends in delinquencies
Lunch break and networking
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Anticipating and mitigating potential CRE risks on the horizon
- Identifying and managing concentration risk across the industry
- Management of exposure and ripple effect across the industry
- Impact of interest rate rises on commercial loans
- Monitoring and stress testing risks to drive diversification
- Future of regulation to test resiliency of wholesale banking
- Credit loss impacts of holding a non-performing asset
- Repricing loans with decreased rental demand
- Monitoring trends in CRE and increased realized losses
- Managing the impact to smaller banks exposed to CRE risk
- Increased delinquencies with reduced office occupancy
- Diminishing risk appetite to finance CRE sector
- Interaction with CECL in estimating expected losses
COLLATERAL VALUATION – PANEL DISCUSSION
Mitigating the impact of maturing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) 2025
- Evaluating post-pandemic shifts in commercial real estate demand and collateral valuation
- Assessing AI-driven valuation models and their role in improving transparency and accuracy
- Addressing the growing importance of ESG factors in commercial asset valuation
- The influence of interest rate volatility on collateral and market sentiment
- Leveraging big data analytics to overcome valuation uncertainties and improve risk forecasting
Afternoon refreshment break and networking
CREDIT DEFAULTS – PANEL DISCUSSION
Assessing the impact of credit defaults
- Prevention & detection of defaults
- Managing an uptick in defaults with volatility
- Underwriting in the current market
- Adequate reserving for potential losses
- Adjusting scenarios and projections to reflect losses
- Assessing impact on bank revenues and industry
NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY: MASTERING CREDIT RISK STRESS TESTING
Reviewing the impact of credit risk and allowance measurement in an uncertain economic environment
- Reviewing impact of approaches and effectiveness in mitigating downturn risks
- Variations in approaches and impact to allowances
- Lessons learned across jurisdictions and implementation approaches
- Process review for estimation of credit losses
- Future changes to advance best practice
- Impact of GFC on approaches with relax in rules
- Treatment of realized losses during historical GFC periods
STRESS TESTING
Breaking the silo between market and credit through consistent stress testing scenarios
- Global scenarios vs cluster risks vs idiosyncratic
- An optimal framework and practice
- The time dimension and the resetting nature of collateral
- Liquidation costs vs MPOR
- The adoption of default probabilities
- PFE, XVA, MTM Counterparty Stress
- Crisis ahead
- Reviewing the big trades that could impact hedge funds